Video Poker Vs Poker Poker
Although video poker and regular poker share much of the same terminology and many of the same concepts, they are radically different games. In poker you are competing against other players and even strong hands can lose if the player playing those hands is weak or if someone else has a better hand. Likewise, a player with a garbage hand can bluff his opponents into submission and steal the pot. Poker is a game that combines psychology, probability, and luck. It's the gambling equivalent of real mortal combat. Now, while psychology certainly plays a part in all forms of gambling, in poker you are as concerned with your opponents' psychology as you are with your own. True, you must know yourself, but it is just as important to know your opponents.
On the other hand, video poker is a game played against the probabilities programmed in a machine. A good hand in video poker always wins whatever the stipulated amount is. You can't be beaten by a better hand. (Okay, a player could conceivably discard a good hand by accident and wind up a loser.) You are not playing against other players. You are not in a battle of wills and cunning with your fellow human beings. There is no trickery, no combat psychology, no human interaction. The winning combinations are set in stone, so to speak. You can't bluff or con a machine. But still—you can beat that machine.
In that sense your psychology certainly does play a part. To beat the video-poker machine, you must be prepared to play only the very best strategies and these only on the very best machines. You must prepare yourself for the streaky nature of video poker. There are 1-o-n-g s-t-r-e-t-c-h-e-s where you will lose and lose and lose—even on the very best machines and with the very best strategies. In fact, in all likelihood you will lose more sessions at video poker than you will win because that is the nature of the game.
The above bears repeating, so write it on the tablets of your heart: you will lose more sessions than you will win because that is the nature of the game. You have to be psychologically prepared for this. Video poker is a game of DOWNS and UPS. More DOWNS. Fewer UPS. But on the right machines, that is, 100 percent or more payback machines, and in the long run, your "fewer UPS" will generate much more income than your "more DOWNS" will lose and thus you'll come out ahead.
This phenomenon is caused by the fact that the jackpot for a royal flush must be factored into the percentages of a machine for determining its playability. A natural royal flush (no wild cards or jokers) occurs approximately once in every 40,000 hands if we use the Jacks or Better machine as the model. It's usually a long time coming. But when it comes, it can push the player from the red into the black. Of course, just because the probability of a natural royal flush is a one-in-40,000 chance doesn't mean that it will necessarily come up that way in the real world. Chance itself is streaky and events sometimes bunch up or elongate. It's unpredictable. You might hit a lucky streak where you get several natural royals in several hundred or thousand hands. You also might hit a cold streak where you play for years and years, hundreds of thousands of hands, and don't get a single one. I know people who seem to have gotten an unbelievable share of royals in the past two years. I also know people who have not gotten a single one. The latter situation can be disheartening to say the least.
Of course, no number of natural royal flushes can make you a theoretical long-term winner on negative-expectation machines. If the machine is returning less than 100 percent, then you can expect in the long run to lose whatever percentage hold that machine has. However, machines that range from 99 percent payback to 99.9 percent payback can be beaten if you factor in comps for your play. The little you lose can be more than made up by the perks the casino is willing to give you for your play.
Again, in the real world even negative-expectation devices do have some lucky players. You'll meet one such player in Chapter Twelve who has hit so many jackpots and received so many comps from Atlantic City casinos that she will be hard pressed to give it all back. This despite the fact that she plays mostly negative-expectation machines (or worse, rigged machines!). The real world and the world of theory sometimes diverge.
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